A possible approach.
Find the convex hull of these points.
Then find the two vertices which are the furthest apart. This gives a first diagonal.
Then find the two other vertices that are the farthest from the first diagonal. This gives a second diagonal.
Now you can just use the quadrilateral formed by these four vertices.
If you want a tighter fit, you can consider the subsets of points in the four quadrants defined by the diagonals, and compute best fit lines, for example by least squares.
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solved Simple algorithm for approximation image contour for line segment